THE TIDE HAS TURNED FOR Crimean separatism. In the first half of this year, the Ukrainian government changed its policy from verbal condemnation of separatist rhetoric to determined action. Then, after the pro-Russian Crimean leadership capitulated to the demands from Kiev, the pro-Russian parties were resoundingly defeated in local elections on the peninsula. However, of the three conditions that were instrumental for the new turn of events – Russian noninterference, Crimean politicians’ preoccupation with securing control over Crimean property, and Crimea’s financial dependence on Ukraine – none is permanent. Next year could witness a resurgence of the separatist movement.
