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A JANUARY CEASEFIRE BROUGHT little respite, only a lull before the likely resumption of major warfare in the spring. The Contact Group and former U.S. President Jimmy Carter continued to try to persuade the Bosnian Serbs to accept another international peace plan. The Clinton administration, in the latest in a series of policy reversals, led the Contact Group countries in conducting direct talks with the Bosnian Serbs. The international community, lacking an overall vision for the Balkans, did not muster a credible threat of force that would bring the Serbs to serious negotiations.